A-Share Soars in Historic Rally
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As the final trading day before the holiday approached, the A-shares experienced a surge that can only be described as monumentalOn September 30th, various indices recorded their largest single-day gains in history: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.06%, breaking through the 3300-point barrier; the Shenzhen Component Index jumped by 10.67%, reclaiming the 10,000-point milestone; and other indices like the ChiNext Index and the Star Market surged even higher, with increases of 15.36%, 17.88%, and 22.84% respectively.
Market activity was electric from the moment trading began, with the combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeding 1 trillion yuan in a mere 35 minutes, marking the fastest record ever for this milestoneBy the end of the day, the total trading volume reached a staggering 2.59 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous record of 2.36 trillion yuan set on May 28, 2015.
The rally was broad-based, with over 700 stocks hitting their daily price limit and a staggering 99.66% of 5,336 listed companies closing in the green
This day recorded the highest number of upward price movements in the history of A-shares, signifying an unprecedented level of optimism.
Among the entities driving this exuberance, brokerage stocks took the lead, collectively known as the "bull market flag bearers." Of the 51 listed brokers, only two remained halted, while the remaining 49 saw their stock prices hit the daily ceiling.
As the influx of traders escalated, several brokerage firms faced severe technical difficulties, with many trading platforms unable to handle the volume, leading to issues such as system lag, login failures, and incomplete data displaysInvestors attempting to transfer funds faced obstacles, creating further frustration.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) responded by notifying brokerages to intensify stress testing of their systems, emphasizing the need for key indicators such as order throughput rates to exceed historical highs
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The goal was to ensure that the trading network could handle peaks that were at least double that of the past year’s maximum usage.
This historic surge was not only a stimulator for market indices but also catalyzed a remarkable performance for fundsETF products specifically geared towards high-tech and innovation themes experienced a wave of limit-up gainsAccording to statistics from Wind, 30 themed ETFs soared by 20%, while 348 others recorded gains of over 10%.
The Huatai-PB MSCI China ETF witnessed trading volumes skyrocket to 25.8 billion yuan, a record high for this investment vehicleAdditionally, other innovative funds such as the Huaxia STAR 50 ETF and E-Fonda ChiNext ETF also achieved significant daily trading milestones during this period.
This bulging market activity surprised many industry insiders, with several struggling to comprehend the sheer scale of the rise, declaring it "unprecedented" and "insane." A fund manager noted, "In the past, we would see specific sectors rally, but this is an across-the-board explosion; we’ve never seen anything like it before
It’s hard to explain, perhaps policy changes exceeded everyone’s expectations."
Market participants at Wan Jia Fund described this day as a continuation of a strong upward trajectory seen in the preceding week, hinting that the A-share market might have hit a significant turning point, now entering a phase of recovery.
Huaxia Fund indicated that the rapid and forceful policy shifts last week reshaped investor expectations drastically, leading to substantial inflows of capital into the marketThe subsequent surge was a clear indication of a correction from previously undervalued assets.
On September 29th, the People's Bank of China announced new financial policies aimed at bolstering the real estate sectorThe minimum down payment for new housing loans was unified to a floor of 15% for both first and second homesAdditionally, banks were instructed to finalize adjustments to existing mortgage rates by October 31st
Cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also revised housing purchase restrictions, suggesting a stabilization of property prices critical for macroeconomic stability.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that as favorable policies for the real estate market, consumption, and the stock market came into effect, A-share markets would continue to riseThe yuan also maintained its appreciation against the dollar, while long-term treasury yields showed an upward trendThe firm anticipates an intensive release of policies in the fourth quarter, projecting that fiscal measures will likely provide further stimulus for the A-shares.
However, the rapid ascent has induced anxiety among some investors who missed the initial surge, while others remain cautiousThe abrupt pace of growth has sparked concerns about future volatilityYet, experts like Jin Ying Fund project continued improved perceptions of the Chinese economy, which could sustain high-risk appetites post-National Day, maintaining a recovery momentum in the A-share market.
Market sentiment peaked following the slew of supportive policies launched post-September 24, leading to rapid inflow from both domestic and foreign investors
As valuation corrections took place across multiple sectors, a renewed profitability potential emerged, setting the stage for favorable investment conditions.
However, experts cautioned that the characteristics of this market surge suggest possible fragmentation as rapid gains deplete the potential for further generalized growthBetween these dynamics, the tech growth sector is likely to outperform for several reasons:
First, the historical performance suggests that sectors aligned with growth have a strong probability of leading the market upward during recovery phasesThe compression of valuations in high-growth sectors relative to value stocks has reached historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery as the market reverses.
Second, the short-term movements in the market can primarily be attributed to policy-driven shifts in investor expectations rather than significant fundamental changes, meaning sectors such as renewable energy, biopharmaceuticals, and TMT that had previously experienced declines are now positioned for substantial rebounds.
Third, following significant upwards swings in market indices, fund influx generally leads to structural trends where industries with clear fundamental narratives take precedence